Anticipated Trends

ANTICIPATED TRENDS

Strategic planning requires that we estimate the trends and developments that will shape the future higher education environment. Specifically, in order to plan effectively, among other information, we need data about student and faculty trends, labor market projections, and trends in land use. These issues are briefly discussed below.

Student and Faculty Projections

The number of New Jersey public high school graduates totaled just over 66,800 students in 1994, continuing a decade-long downward trend. This trend has now bottomed out and statewide projections through the year 2003 suggest a gradual but steady increase of 1% to 3% per year during this period. Other estimates, which include nonpublic high school data estimates and project further into the future, suggest an overall 18% increase in the number of New Jersey high school graduates by 2009.¹ Rutgers consistently has enrolled between 5% and 6% of New Jersey's high school graduates for each of the last 10 years.
While the absolute number of New Jersey high school graduates has been decreasing, their college-going rate has been increasing steadily. Over the last 10 years, the number of public high school graduates declined by 20%; but the number of 1993 New Jersey public high school graduates attending college is only 2% less than the number of 1983 high school graduates attending college. College-going rates have increased approximately 16 percentage points in the last decade, and currently are 72%. Should this rate of attendance continue to increase, or even remain constant, as the absolute numbers of high school graduates rise, the pool of recent high school graduates seeking college admission will increase substantially. In 1994, over 48,000 New Jersey public high school students sought college admission. It is anticipated that by 2003, close to 58,000 students, representing almost a 20% increase, will seek admission.² The latest statewide projections of New Jersey college enrollments suggest increases at the public universities of only 1% to 2% in the period between 1995 and 2000.³

See Figure 15.

While the percentage of New Jersey's first-year college students who enroll at out-of-state higher edu-cation institutions has declined from 42% in 1988 to 36% in 1992, the proportion is still large. Although many excellent students attend New Jersey colleges, many academically strong students go out of state. Attracting the most highly qualified New Jersey students to Rutgers is an important issue being addressed in the university's strategic planning efforts.

It is anticipated that Rutgers' future student body will be increasingly diverse. New Jersey's demographic profile is one of the most diverse in the country. New Jersey Department of Labor population projections through 2005 indicate significant growth in minority representation, both in general and among the traditional college-age population. Overall, the state's white population is projected to grow by 1%, New Jersey's African-American population is projected to increase by 15%, and other minority populations (Asians and Pacific Islanders; and American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleuts) by 134%. By 2005, nonwhites are projected to constitute 23% of New Jersey's total population, and 27% of the 15-24 year olds.⁴ The Latino population is also expected to increase, as is New Jersey's immigrant population. It is anticipated that Rutgers' future student body will be increasingly diverse, reflective of the composition of the state as a whole.

Long-predicted faculty shortages have, for the most part, not materialized. At Rutgers, full-time faculty have decreased by about 3% over the last decade, but this decline has been due primarily to state budget reductions, not a lack of qualified personnel. Concern about the faculty of the future has shifted to matters regarding the composition of the faculty. Enhancing the racial and ethnic diversity of the faculty demands increased attention. Lifting mandatory retirement has heightened discussions about the appropriate balance between junior and senior faculty. Attracting adequate numbers of qualified faculty in certain fields remains an issue, as does the related concern about overreliance on adjunct faculty.

Labor Market Projections

The New Jersey Department of Labor projects that total employment in New Jersey will increase by 14% during the 1990-2005 period.5 This translates into an average annual growth rate of almost 1%, considerably slower than the 2.6% annual growth of the 1982-1989 period, although better than the 2.7% annual decrease experienced during the recent 1989-1991 recessionary years. New Jersey's employment growth through 2005 is projected to be slower than that of the nation, as it has been throughout the 1980s and early 1990s.

The number of jobs in the service-producing industries in New Jersey is expected to rise by 20.3% between 1990 and 2005, in sharp contrast to the anticipated decline of 10.5% in the goods-producing industries. By the year 2005, almost 17 out of every 20 jobs in the state are projected to be in service-producing industries, such as wholesale and retail trade, and business and health services. The service sector has increasingly provided employment to college graduates.

The occupations projected to grow the fastest in New Jersey into the next century are professional and technical occupations.

    Accordingly, the occupations projected to grow the fastest in New Jersey into the next century are professional and technical occupations, such as information science and health-related fields, which are concentrated in the service-producing industries. With a 1990-2005 projected growth in jobs of over 200,000, or 27%, professional and technical occupations are projected to account for almost two out of five of the state's new jobs. Overall, 23% of the state's job openings each year-new jobs plus replacements created by people leaving the labor force-are projected to occur in the professional and technical occupations.
    A college degree has come to play a singular role in providing access to good jobs. The gap in expected earnings between college and high school graduates has increased by 20 percentage points over the last decade. A July 1994 United States Department of Commerce study indicated that workers with college degrees earn an average of 70% more than those with high school diplomas. In the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region, a recent analysis of demographic trends made for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey suggests that the differential is even greater: the median income of college graduates is 80% higher than that of high school graduates. Individuals with masterÕs degrees or higher earn 137% more than high school graduates.
    New Jersey's labor force is expected to grow approximately 12%-a total of almost 500,000 people-between 1990 and 2005. Its composition is also expected to change. Females and minorities are projected to make up the majority of the change in the state's labor force between 1990 and 2005; only one out of every 20 net additions is projected to be a white male; more than two out of three are projected to be nonwhite (largely Asians); and three out of five are projected to be female.

The state's economy is dependent upon a highly skilled, technologically literate work force.

The state's economy is dependent upon a highly skilled, technologically literate work force. It is critical that Rutgers continue to be well positioned to meet these emerging labor force needs. Up-to-date technical education, combined with basic education in arts and sciences, provides graduates with the skills necessary for today's work environment. As a measure of Rutgers' success in promoting techno-logical literacy, more than 34,000 Rutgers students already use computer accounts to access information and to communicate with other students and faculty at Rutgers and around the globe, to simulate scientific experiments, to model engineering problems, and to assist in the solution of complex mathematical and scientific problems.

Recent national projections indicate that today's workers will be required to retrain as many as 13 times during their careers and will hold up to five different jobs in their lifetimes. Providing the necessary pool of individuals able to adapt successfully to an evolving workplace will require a renewed commitment to access to higher education, as well as an examination of the need for curricular and pedagogical changes in the academy itself.

Land Use Trends

One of the most important issues facing New Jersey is environmental quality and utilization of its land resources. Only two million of New Jersey's 4.8 million acres remain in vacant or agricultural status. Particularly alarming is the loss of prime farmland and the development of environmentally sensitive land including forests, wetlands, steep slopes, and critical watersheds. Since 1950, New Jersey has lost 50% of its farmland, with only 880,000 acres remaining. If trends continue, New Jersey will lose approximately 290,000 acres of currently undeveloped land by the year 2000. Of these, 37,000 acres will be environmentally frail and 108,000 acres will be agricultural. The State Master Plan for development of New Jersey has proposed a model to balance the goals of economic development with those of resource conservation and sustainability. Implementation of this plan to achieve sustainable development will require a partnership of Rutgers with state and local policymakers and with the private sector. Maintaining the quality of the environment represents a potential $600 billion industry nationwide. Given the nature of environmental quality in New Jersey, Rutgers should play a significant role in the development of this industry in the state.

1. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, "High School Graduates: Projections by State 1992-2009," Boulder, CO, 1993.

2. Joseph Seneca, "Report for Commission on Higher Education Planning Retreat," 1994.

3. New Jersey Department of Higher Education, "Population Trends Will Tend to Boost Undergraduate Enrollment During the Second Half of the Decade," Chancellor's Report, November, 1991.

4. New Jersey Department of Labor, "Projections 2005: New Jersey Employment and Population in the 21st Century," Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research, November 1992. The Department of Labor projections are by race, not ethnicity, and therefore do not report Latinos or persons of other ethnic backgrounds separately.

5. All projections in this section were developed by the New Jersey Department of Labor, Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research.